They say in life only two things are certain: death and taxes. Well, we respectfully beg to disagree. In a world full of uncertainty, it comes as a small comfort to know that you can place an actual sports-bet that’s guaranteed to win – the sure bet. Also known as an arbitrage bet (or more whimsically, the wonder bet), a sure bet mathematically guarantees you a profit. One of the benefits of our odds comparison feature is that as we analyze bookmakers’ betting-lines, sometimes we find a large enough difference among the bookies to literally guarantee a win. Read on to learn how this marvel of mathematics really works and find out if it’s a workable strategy in the real world.
How does a sure bet work?
In order for a sure bet to work, you need a few things to come together properly. While a sure bet can exist is any sport, the VAST majority will occur in sports where the draw is a possible outcome (soccer and hockey are prime examples of this). You’ll also need two, and very often three, bookmakers with different betting-lines in order to cover the margins. When these conditions are met, you will bet on all outcomes. For the sake of this article, we will focus on sports with draws as those will apply to most real-world situations. For the sure bet to work, it is essential that you divide your stake exactly as indicated by the experts.
Here’s how we calculate a sure bet:
Let’s consider an upcoming match between SV Werder Bremen hosting heavily-favored Bundesliga juggernaut FC Bayern Munich. If we start with a € 100 stake and divide it according to the experts’ instructions, we find:
- BET # 1 of € 12.84 on TIP 1 at odds of 8.00 = € 102.72
BET # 2 of € 18.68 on a DRAW at odds of 5.50 = € 102.74
BET #3 of € 68.48 on TIP 2 at odds of 1.50 = € 102.72
No matter the outcome of the game, you will secure a profit of no less than € 2.72.
|Provider||Bet Amount €||Bet placed on||Odds||Profit|
How much can I win on sure bets?
Typically, a sure bet will be in the 0.2% to the 5% range. The example above sits squarely in the middle at 2.72%. We agree that these are not heart-stopping amounts, but a win is a win. Depending on how much you wager, 2.7% can be a very large number indeed.To Soccer Surebets
What do I need to look out for when placing a sure bet?
An excellent question! In most cases, a sure bet will unfold the way we’ve just described. HOWEVER (you knew this was coming, right?), there are a few things that could happen along the way:
- One or more of the bookmakers calls off the bet. Bookies are a clever bunch and they constantly monitor their competition. When they see an unusually large betting discrepancy, they can and will call off the bet. It is their right to do so.
- The odds change before you place your bet. This is also a real possibility. Bookmakers continually adjust their odds and it could very well happen that their updated betting-lines will no longer enable a sure bet. We update our odds as frequently as possible, but always double check before placing your wager.
- If one leg of the sure bet fails, the whole bet is in danger. Perhaps one of the bookies has decided to call off the bet. Your stake with that bookmaker will be returned of course, but the rest of your wager is still in play.
Find the bookmaker with the highest odds for your tips. Click on an odd in order to add it to the bet slip.
Click on an odd to add it to the bet slip.