World Cup 2018 – LONGSHOT Betting Tips | Odds* and Predictions

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Traditionally, at major sporting events such as the 2018 World Cup in Russia, there are more underdogs than favorites. That is why we want to take an in-depth look at teams that do indeed have a longshot chance during the 2018 World Cup and might be good for a surprise or two. After all, at every World Cup there are always two or three teams that outdo themselves contrary to expectations. What makes betting on World Cup longshots so attractive: Even a small wager, if placed appropriately, can generate big winnings. Below, we present to you the most promising longshot betting tips for the 2018 World Cup, which, in our opinion, offer the best odds and the greatest potential value!

Content on this page

  • Longshot betting tips worth considering for the 2018 World Cup
  • Egypt
  • Peru
  • Iceland
  • Serbia
  • Sweden
  • Longshots to Win It All at the 2018 World Cup
  • Poland
  • Colombia
  • Longshot bets on Goal Scorers at the 2018 World Cup
  • Thomas Müller
  • Edinson Cavani
  • Sergio Agüero
  • James Rodriguez
  • Best Team from South America - is a longshot bet likely to pay off at the 2018 World Cup?


World Cup Betting Providers

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Here you can find the most outstanding bonus offers, special bets, odds and promotions provided by the best bookmakers.

World Cup Teams and Groups

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Find out more about the World Cup 2018 participants, for which we have prepared special betting tips. Also included: Group tables A-H.

World Cup 2018 Betting Tips

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In this section we present detailed previews, exciting betting tips and of course the best odds for every match at the World Cup 2018.

Longshot betting tips worth considering for the 2018 World Cup

Which country has what it takes to become the surprise team?

In this category, we wish to present to you the most promising longshot betting tips – teams that have what it takes to pull off a real surprise or two during the 2018 World Cup and progress much farther in the tournament than many an expert or betting provider believes possible. 5 teams in particular, in our estimation, have realistic chances of creating quite a stir as quarter-finalists in the 2018 World Cup. In this section, we focus on wagers which speculate on the respective teams being eliminated in the quarterfinals – because these longshot betting tips appeal to us due to the good mixture of realistic likelihood and unbeatable odds.


The Egyptian national team will be in Group A, competing against Uruguay and Russia to move forward into the round-of-sixteen. For the bookmakers, the Egyptians are longshots to move on in the competition only because home team Russia is ranked higher. From our perspective, things aren’t quite so clear: If Mo Salah is able to bring his outstanding form with him to the World Cup and inspire his teammates, longshot Egypt definitely has a second-place finish in them. Potential opponents in the round-of-sixteen would probably be Spain or Portugal. Especially against the latter of those, the North Africans would have realistic chances of moving on to the quarterfinals, at which point they would probably have reached their maximum potential. Laying a wager on them as a longshot is definitely worth consideration. An alternative suggestion: wagering on them reaching the round-of-sixteen. 


Peru should definitely be kept on our radar as a promising longshot at the 2018 World Cup. Even during the qualifying stages, the Peruvians demonstrated they are quite capable of taming even the major football powerhouses. A wager on the Peruvians as a longshot tip to move into the quarterfinals has, in our mind, a very good chance of success. One of the reasons: In Group C, with France as the clear favorite to win the group, Peru will be battling it out against Denmark and Australia to reach the knockout round – two very manageable opponents. Their potential opponent in the round-of-sixteen is hard to predict, since the top spots in Group D will be contested by a very balanced quartet of countries that includes Argentina, Croatia, Iceland and Nigeria. The odds of a longshot wager on “Peru - elimination in the quarterfinals” we see as being too high – which is why we suggest a wager in the single-digit range! 


At the 2018 World Cup, Iceland will once again enter the race as an outsider. In Group D, the Northern Europeans are given only a minimal chance by experts and bookmakers of prevailing against Argentina and Croatia. That said, by qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, the Icelanders have already made liars of many of their critics, who believed that reaching the quarterfinals at the 2016 World Cup in France was a one-time success. However, during qualifying they were able to prevail as longshots against Croatia and ultimately wrap up the group - why should this be any different at the 2018 World Cup? And the fact that the Icelanders have the potential to eliminate supposed co-favorites from the competition was impressively demonstrated against England just 2 years ago. Reaching the quarterfinals yet again is certainly doable for the likable Icelanders – with that in mind, a longshot wager on them is also rewarded with highly lucrative odds! 


For Serbia, who are also given a good longshot chance at the 2018 World Cup, it is all about prevailing over Switzerland in Group E in the battle for second place. Brazil is presumably in a league of its own – that said, recently the South Americans have shown on several occasions that they are quite capable of having a bad day. We are convinced that Serbia will make it into the round-of-sixteen – where presumably a team from the trio of Germany, Mexico and Sweden will await them. Against Germany, that will probably be the end of the show for Serbia, however, with a little bit of luck or an outstanding group phase, they might be able to avoid them in the round-of-sixteen – which would then make it possible to reach the quarterfinals. A longshot wager at the 2018 World Cup for Serbia to be eliminated in the quarterfinals is thus an appealing option.


Swedes are famously a hard nut to crack. We are also somewhat optimistic about the ambitions of these Scandinavian longshots in the 2018 World Cup. In Group F, the lower-ranked Swedes have very realistic chances of prevailing over Mexico. If Brazil should slip up in their own group, Switzerland or Serbia might very well await the Northern Europeans in the round-of-sixteen. In our opinion, however, of the 5 longshot teams we have listed, the Swedes are least likely to make it to the quarterfinals – nevertheless, a longshot wager on them is still very tempting. 

Longshots to Win It All at the 2018 World Cup

Who might pull off a major surprise?

Needless to say, a huge sensation is always possible at the 2018 World Cup - however, the probability is minimal that a underdog will actually take home the World Cup title. That said, fans of sports betting frequently like to wager smaller amounts on absolute longshots. At this point, we wish to draw your attention to our articles in which we take a close look at the most important favorites as well as the dark horses to win the World Cup, which you will find here. Other than the usual circle of favorites, two extreme longshots to become champions of the 2018 World Cup are Poland and Colombia - two opponents during the preliminary round in Group H. We recognize the potential of both teams to pull off a major coup in the 2018 World Cup. Thanks to the very appealing odds, a wager on either of them might prove very lucrative. In these two teams, we see the greatest value in long-term wagers to win the entire World Cup. 


Poland must prevail in the 2018 World Cup against Japan and Senegal – as well as Colombia in Group H . In the round-of-sixteen, the ambitious longshots would likely meet England or Belgium. In the case of Poland, we are confident in their ability, even in tightly contested knockout matches, to prevail. A Robert Lewandowski in top form might well make the difference. A longshot wager on Poland winning the World Cup, if they were successful in doing so, would be rewarded handsomely. 


In the case of Colombia, the same variables speak for a major surprise at the 2018 World Cup as did for Poland: Due to the very balanced make-up of the group, it is quite possible for the Colombians to win the group and thus avoid England (or Belgium) in the quarterfinals. From that point on, everything is possible for the South Americans. Only 4 years ago, they made it to the final 8, where they only barely came up short against Brazil. The technically brilliant Colombians are definitely worthy of a longshot wager to take home the World Cup thanks to the excellent odds. 

Longshot bets on Goal Scorers at the 2018 World Cup

Who will win the Golden Boot?

Naturally, longshot wagers aren’t only possible on individual teams competing in the 2018 World Cup: Bets on goal scorers as well as many other options can be very exciting and profitable wagers. We would like to present to you 3 very promising candidates to win the Golden Boot, who – in our opinion – are totally underestimated by the bookmakers. When you wager on these underdogs, you can also expect attractively high odds. 

Thomas Müller

Thomas Müller should always be on anyone’s list at major soccer tournaments. That also goes for the 2018 World Cup, when a longshot wager on this Bayern Munich star to become goal-scoring king represents a potentially profitable alternative. In fact, back in the 2010 World Cup, the “Space Reader” completely surprised the experts by bringing home the Golden Boot. After a streaky run, Müller has managed to find his way back to his old form under the leadership of his new trainer, Jupp Heynckes. So, the high odds for a wager on him during the World Cup are an opportunity not to be missed! 

Edinson Cavani

Frankly, we are puzzled why exceptionally talented Edinson Cavani of Uruguay is only given an outside chance of winning the Golden Boot. The team’s group opponents Russia, Egypt and Saudi-Arabia give reason to assume that this superb forward from PSG will hit a goal or 2 during the preliminary round. In the round-of-sixteen, he might well face Portugal before continuing on towards the finals. In fact, in 2010 another Uruguayan was able to win the Golden Boot: Diego Forlan. This time, too, we warmly recommend a wager on this Uruguayan “outsider”. 

Sergio Agüero

Of course, all of the bookmakers have their eyes squarely focused on Lionel Messi when it comes to who will become the goal-scoring king of the 2018 World Cup. But by doing so, they are forgetting a very experienced attacker who has been through it all and has what it takes to outperform his teammates: Sergio Agüero. This Man City center forward is regarded by many experts, as well as within the team itself, as having an outside chance of standing atop the list of goal scorers by the end of the tournament. Argentina is seen as a clear candidate to win the title on the one hand, while on the other, the “Gauchos” boast an enviable offense – with lots of goals seemingly guaranteed.

James Rodriguez

Many seem to have forgotten in the meantime – but this feisty Colombian surprisingly won the Golden Boot 4 years ago. Also in the 2018 World Cup, James Rodriguez, who regularly assumes the free-kick duties for his team, was one of the most dangerous midfielders in front of goal in the entire tournament. Whether this Bayern Munich star can actually repeat his success during the World Cup in Russia is actually doubted by the bookmakers. We say: A small longshot wager on him could be very rewarding again. 

Best Team from South America - is a longshot bet likely to pay off at the 2018 World Cup?

A longshot bet for the 2018 World Cup only makes sense if you speculate that Argentina and Brazil will be eliminated early, both teams entering this race as the most promising candidates to win it all. However, Argentina managed to land in a very tough group that includes Croatia, Iceland and Nigeria, while Brazil appears not to be the dominating force it used to be just a few years ago. If the Brazilians happen to squander points unnecessarily in the preliminary round, they might potentially face defending champions – and everybody’s bogey opponent –Germany. The door would then open wide for the two other ambitious South American teams, Uruguay and Colombia

If you decide to make this particular longshot wager on the 2018 World Cup, we recommend the following betting strategy: Instead of placing your entire bet on one of the two teams, we recommend you divide your wagering budget and cover both potential betting outcomes - Uruguay and Colombia. Due to the attractive odds of 9.00, your winnings will still be very high and you will double your chances of winning with this strategic move. 

* All odds: status 23.02.2018

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