World Cup 2018 - MEXICO I Betting Tips, Odds* and Prognosis
For the seventh time in a row, at the 2018 World Cup in Russia you will have an opportunity to bet on Mexico. In all likelihood, these North Americans will be battling it out in Group F for second place against the teams from Sweden and South Korea. For this team, too, we provide you with a concise preview, which includes betting tips as well as analysis of the squad and a look back at their record during qualifying.
Content on this page
- World Cup tips and prognosis
- Our Top 3 Betting Tips for Mexico
- Roster Analysis
- Qualification and form check
- Previous final round participations
- 17.06.2018 | 16:00 | Mexico - Germany
- ODDS COMPARISON
- 23.06.2018 | 16:00 | Mexico - South Korea
- ODDS COMPARISON
- 27.06.2018 | 15:00 | Mexico - Sweden
- ODDS COMPARISON
What World Cup bets can we recommend to you in the case of Mexico?
When it comes to betting, Group F is especially interesting with regards to those who are focused on individual matches. Why? Because the teams from Sweden, South Korea as well as Mexico are at about the same level, which means the odds for all results will be correspondingly high. In this regard, we would like to give you one small example from Tipico: a victory by Mexico over Sweden in the concluding group match has odds of 2.5, a defeat will produce 2.8, while even a draw will mean that a bet of € 1 will result in a € 3.30 return. If you take a look at the entire qualifying round in Group F, in practically every scenario the North Americans offer attractive odds.
That said, you should be aware that you should not place your bets for Mexico (at least yet) to the same degree through all bookmakers. Let us look for instance at Interwetten, which has long offered attractive betting opportunities with respect to Mexico. Here is just one example: A bet on the team of Juan Carlos Osorio being eliminated is currently given odds of 1.70, while Interwetten is quoting odds of 3.75 for them to enter the knockout phase, representing a very promising, and not unrealistic bet on Mexico. That will not suffice, in our opinion, for more than the quarterfinals (7.75). With that in mind, long-term bets on the Mexicans, such as for the top goal scorer or “Player of the Tournament”, are barely recommended.
In contrast, we see as attractive and lucrative a bet on Mexico finishing second to group winner Germany and progressing to the next round. Interwetten is currently offering odds of 3.00 for this bet. A bet that is purely focused on Mexico making it out of the group stage in the 2018 World Cup – regardless of position – is greeted by odds of 2.10. However, a bet on group victory is rewarded with major odds of 6.00. Insofar as the different bookmakers offer this as a betting option, we would definitely recommend betting on Mexico to become the best North or Central American team in a dual with Costa Rica.
As for betting on results in the group phase, Mexico should definitely be considered when it comes to bets on total points. If you bet that the Osorio-Eleven will be able to post more or less than 3.5 points, you will be able to reckon with odds of 1.60 (yes) or 3.20 (no) from Interwetten. Interesting: In all 3 group matches, regardless of the bet – be that on a draw, defeat or victory – Mexico produces odds of at least 1.53, in which instance we are using the bookmaker Intertops as our point of reference.
Our Top 3 Betting Tips for Mexico
- Best CONCACAF participant in the World Cup
- To reach the round of the last 16
- To win against South Korea
What squad will Mexico be sending to the 2018 World Cup?
Here, we are focusing primarily on the roster which was named to the Confed-Cup. Though the final team which Mexico will field during the 2018 World Cup is not yet certain, we can still go ahead and talk about the most important and intriguing personalities. We also want to analyze the various components of the team. Let us begin, appropriately, with the goalkeeper position. Here, in the case of Mexico, we see an advantage in having Guillermo Ochoa, a goalie from a top league, whose excellent performance caused quite a stir during the last World Cup finals in Brazil. A circumstance which clearly differentiates the Mexico squad from group opponent South Korea, while we also see advantages in this regard with respect to Sweden as well. That said, they do not have a really strong backup for the goalie from FC Málaga.
With respect to defense, we see their central defenders as additional strengths, with players such as Hector Moreno, Carlos Salcedo and Diego Reyes who were involved with Europe’s 5 best leagues, in some cases with top teams. In this regard, it will be interesting to see whether veteran Rafael Marquéz (now 37 years young) will still be available. We see his experience, especially in such a balanced group as Group F, as an important advantage. Thanks to the quality of their central defenders, we view Mexico as being especially dangerous in standard situations. Also on the right side of their defense, in Miguel Layún of FC Porto they have a very dynamic player available to them, while on the left side, in contrast we barely see a single player with adequate experience at the highest level.
The pride and joy of this team is, beyond a doubt, their central midfield. Here, Mexico can place their trust during the 2018 World Cup on two game-changers, Andres Guardado from Eindhoven and Hector Herrera from FC Porto, whom we regard as essential to the team’s play-making success. As for the wingers, we see a particular strength on the right-hand side yet again, where the likes of Vela and Corona can be used as dangerous weapons. Also when it comes to the depth of the squad, we see the midfield as being in great shape, especially when you realize that they can resort to alternatives such as Marco Fabián (Eintracht Frankfurt) and ex Barcelona und Villareal player, Giovani Dos Santos.
At centerforward, much depends on one man yet again. We are talking of Chicharito – currently under contract with West Ham United, though not the team’s number-one attacker as yet. Available as a backup would be Raul Jiménez of Benfica Lisbon, a very strong performer, though this starter on Portugal’s Champions League team has never been able to establish himself as expected, and generally plays only second or third fiddle on that team.
What results did Mexico produce during qualifying for the 2018 World Cup?
Here, we must emphasize that Mexico set out as the absolute top favorite in the CONCACAF qualifying zone – that is to say, the qualifying zone that encompasses North and Central America. In Group 1, we had the teams from Costa Rica, Trinidad, Honduras, Panama and the USA. The USA underwent some weak play no one had expected during qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, opening the door for the Osorio-Eleven. The fact that Mexico defeated their toughest remaining opponent, Costa Rica, at home 2:0 and then managed a 1:1 away draw, speaks in favor of placing a bet on Mexico as the best team of the continent.
In the end, Mexico dominated over Costa Rica with 21 points from 10 matches (16 for Costa Rica). Particularly impressive: Of these 10 match-ups, Mexico lost only one, by a score of 2:3, in a final, and meaningless dual with Honduras. We saw a particular strength of Juan Carlos Osorio’s squad in their balance between defense and offense. They managed to score 16 goals in all of their qualifying matches, putting them second only behind the USA (17). It is also a fact that Mexico’s attackers are significantly less on the mark than, for example, Germany, which is in turn an indicator when considering bets on more or less than a specific number of goals over the entire group phase.
Defensively, Mexico was number one in CONCACAF Group 1 during qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, allowing only 7 goals-against in 10 matches. It is also worth looking at the friendly matches which Mexico has had during World Cup qualifying for Russia. Especially because: In these matches, the North Americans frequently went up against European teams that were thought to be stronger, yet managed to wrestle a 3:3 draw from Belgium and even defeated another World Cup team, Poland, 1:0 away. Over the course of 7 international friendlies in the last calendar year, only on one occasion did they give up more than one goal, which was last May, a 1:2 defeat against Croatia. In addition to Poland, they also managed to beat teams from Iceland (1:0), Ireland (3:1) and Ghana (1:0).
We should also mention Mexico’s performance in the 2017 Confed Cup: in this tournament, they made it into the semifinals, scoring at least one goal in every match. A bet you should absolutely consider. This tournament included a 2:2 against European Champion Portugal, 2 victories over Russia (2:1) and New Zealand (2:1), as well as defeats against World Cup group opponents Germany (1:4) and, in the match for 3rd place, against Portugal (1:2 in extra time).
How has Mexico performed in previous World Cup appearances?
Mexico’s 2018 World Cup will end in the round-of-16 – at least, that is, if you take into consideration their most recent World Cup performances. No fewer than 6 times in succession have they failed to make it past the round-of-16. In continental championships of recent years, they have generally not enjoyed great success. In 2016, Mexico lost in the quarterfinals of the Copa América, while in 2015 they didn’t even make it out of the group stage.
Their best results were two quarterfinals appearances in 1970 and 1986, though as we can see, these successes are already several decades in the past. Optimists might well point out that, in Mexico’s case, since the 1994 World Cup in the USA, they have always survived the group stage. A bet which is, as we have already noted, also attractive for the World Cup in Russia and appears thoroughly realistic, though we should not expect much more from them than that.
*All odds: status 14.02.2018