Betting on late goals

In the following we would like to make you familiar with a very popular and promising betting strategy – betting on late goals. This method, that counts among the sector of goal-betting, is often used because of various factors we want to present to you. Naturally betting on late goals works with several kinds of sports - we would like to concentrate on soccer.

Reading time: 3 min
Topics covered in this article:
  1. How are bets on late goals marked by the bookmakers?
  2. When and why should you bet on late goals?
  3. Which advantages does the strategy “betting on late goals” offer?
  4. How do I use the strategy “betting on late goals” best?
  5. Especially appealing: late goals with live-betting
  6. The contrary strategy - betting against late goals

How are bets on late goals marked by the bookmakers?

By now it is possible to bet on late goals with all important bookmakers. The offers often differ in various points you need to consider. The bets are marked in different ways by various bookmakers or there are set different periods of time. For the denomination two different approaches are common: 1) The bet on late goals is placed as a so called over/under bet. With the bookmaker bwin the whole thing works as such: for a certain soccer match, you bet on the number of goals from minute 75:01 till the end of the regular playing time according to this principle:

  • More than 0,5 goals | odds 1,95
  • Less than 0,5 goals | odds 1,75

The idea behind this principle is really simple: if a goal is scored during this frame of time, this means more than 0,5 goals, if no goal is scored, it's less than 0,5 goals. This notation or this bet type is used by bookmakers especially if there is additionally the option of betting on more or less than 1,5 or 2,5 goals. In most cases betting on late goals works according to the traditional yes/no principle:

  • Is a goal scored after minute 75? | yes
  • Is a goal scored after minute 75? | no

A majority of bookmakers offer time frames of fifteen minutes for betting on goals. If you want to bet on late goals the frame of time from minute 75 to minute 90 plus extra time is most common. You should avoid shorter time frames (e.g. 10 minutes). The question “From what point onwards is a goal a late goal?” is essential, because it varies from bookmaker to bookmaker. You have to consider even small differences because they can be crucial for winning or losing the bet. For example, the bookmaker 1xbet offers the option “goal after 74 minutes”, whereas bet365 calls a goal a late goal only after minute “75:59”. It´s similar with the odds - therefore you have to be aware of those nuances and let them influence the choice of your bookmaker with this strategy. With many bookmakers, you can find the offer in the section “Last goal of the match”.

When and why should you bet on late goals?

Aside from the probability of success the question arises why it makes sense to bet on late goals. For which matches should I use this strategy? There are many reasons for late goals in soccer matches:

  • strength and concentration of the players deteriorate with time
  • substitute players breathe new life into the game
  • the favourite team scores another goal at the end because the outsider is forced to take more risks
  • the underdog manages to score a goal after the favourite team has already shifted into a lower gear because it thought that the game was in the bag

This list shows that especially matches with an obvious favourite and outsider are suitable for this strategy. Furthermore you should take a look at injuries as well as the respective goal differences of the teams. Both can works as indications of late goals. It's important to take a closer look at the last matches of the individual teams. Can you spot a pattern? One tip: teams that are liable to receive late goals can often be spotted more easily than teams that frequently score at the end of a game. Only place your bet after a satisfactory and well-founded analysis!

Which advantages does the strategy “betting on late goals” offer?

Analyses show that the strategy of betting on late goals is particularly promising. Let's take a look at two match weeks in Germany, the 16th and 17th round of the season 2017/18:

  • In the 16th round in five of the nine matches a late goal was scored in the last 15 minutes – that's a success rate of 56%.
  • In the 17th round of the German Bundesliga in as many as eight of nine matches one or more late goals were scored after minute 75 – that's an unbelievable success rate of 89%. Of course, this is an extreme value, but it still shows the high chances of winning with this betting strategy.

Moreover, this is only a small sample, but comprehensive statistics also paint a pleasing picture for betting fans. The probability of occurrence over a longer observational period finds a certain level at about 60%. Theoretically nothing should get in the way of making a continuous profit. Experience has shown that it's easier for betting fans and attentive observers to predict the factor “late goals” and make a profit out of it than with other other bets on goals - for example the total number of goals in a game. Another advantage of this sports betting strategy: it's a common 2-way-bet. The chances of winning are 50:50. Moreover the odds for a late goal vary between 1,80 and 2,00. Occasionally you can find odds over 2,00, but they are the exception. Mostly they level off at about 1,90. That means for you that you can almost double your wager with a successful bet! The mathematical probability of occurrence is rated at about 52% by the bookmakers. The long-term median for late goals is statistically higher, though, and is at about 60%, as mentioned above.

How do I use the strategy “betting on late goals” best?

The key question is: how can I use a certain tactic best? You can take advantage of betting on late goals only when you place it as an individual bet! Combined bets and system bets are too risky for this strategic consideration and would let you slip into the red for sure after some time. To make a long-term profit with this betting strategy you should place an individual bet on a late goal for a couple of matches. A single betting tip may end up in a fail fairly quickly. We advise you to place a bet on a goal in the last 15 minutes for several matches with obvious favourites where many and late goals can be expected. You should not disregard the odds of the bookmakers and compare them. Furthermore, you should choose the wager carefully – rather small amounts per match are advisable. This strategy makes sense and is profitable mostly when it is used consequently over a longer period. Wagers in the one-digit euro area are absolutely enough.

Especially appealing: late goals with live-betting

Betting on late goals is especially popular in the sector of live-betting. That's of course to do with the odds that increase every minute towards the end of a match. It's absolutely recommendable to watch the match live. We advise against live-tickers that may be updated one or several minutes delayed. With live-betting every minute counts, as you know. Moreover, if you are sure that another goal will be scored you shouldn't wait too long! Place the bet – the odds are high enough towards the end! You don't have to wait for even more lucrative odds. Experience has shown that it's a mistake to wait for extra time. There is hardly anything more annoying than a goal that is scored shortly before the bet is placed or accepted. Our advice is that you should come to a decision before minute 80 if you want to bet on a late goal.

The contrary strategy - betting against late goals

This strategy is also very popular in the sector of live-betting, and it's only advisable to use it in this context. Before a match we wouldn't recommend this strategy! You should act especially when neither of the teams needs a goal any more and both are obviously content with the result. Always observe the proceedings carefully!

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