How does the progressive "Bets on draw" strategy work?
The focus of our analysis of draw bets is supposed to be on our experiences with the progressive draw betting strategy. It works simply: You choose a random team, that from experience draws pretty often. Our tip: Usually it's teams that can be found in the middle of the ranking over years, that draw most often. Once you made your choice, as the next step you should bet on a draw by this team for the whole season and every match - this strategy is only lucrative, if you do it consequently and over a long period of time. Of course you need to place this tip as a single bet. This might sound irritating at first, but the clou of this draw bets system is that apart from the high odds it works with a so-called loss progression. This is supposed to mean: In the case of a loss you raise your set base stakes by a certain percentage, so that in the case of a win the former loss is redeemed and that a steady plus can be gained. One can make out certain similarities to the world famous Martingale strategy, which is often used for roulette. The advantage of a progressive draw betting strategy: Due to high betting odds, that are usually way above 3.00, the stakes don't need to be doubled, a stakes raise of 50% in the case of a loss is sufficient. The stakes therefore don't grow as fast when you have a loss series. We don't want to keep the risks of this strategy a secret though: You need to count with very high stakes at times with this form of betting on draws. So it's an advantage to have a generous betting budget.
Precise example for the progressive draw strategy
In order to illustrate the progressive draw system better, we want to present the following example. For our team selection we take a look at the final ranking of the German Bundesliga from the 2016/2017 season. Of course you can also choose a different football league. It turns out that TSG Hoffenheim had 14 draws and therefore was the team with the most draws. This makes for 41,18% of all league matches. Therefore we choose this team for our bets on draws for the 2017/2018 season. Beginners that use the draw betting strategy for the first time should choose a rather small base stake. We recommend a low one-digit amount, so that the betting stakes remain affordable at all times and you avoid a total loss. For simplicity we take average odds of 3.50 for Tip X (=draw). The best betting providers even have higher average odds at times (up to 3.90), so 3.50 isn't too high at all. As base stake we choose 3 Euros. Therefore we "only" need to place an amount of 34,17 Euros after 6 lost bets with a raise of stakes of 50%. It's the goal to bet on draws of the respective team for a whole season. Of course you can set out certain matches against clear favourites for example at will. The first 20 matches of TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in the 2017/2018 season looked as followed with the draw betting strategy:
As you can see Hoffenheim is not letting us down regarding our draw betting strategy - one can rely on them drawing from time to time. Therefore you can accept a couple of lost bets in between. After 20 match days we have a net profit of 54,36 Euros. BUT: We want to mention at this point that you can also produce a minus with this system. A positive ending after the season cannot be guaranteed.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draw betting strategy?
First the biggest advantage of the betting on draw tactic are the high average odds from 3.40 to 3.80 or even higher. You can make up for lost bets quickly with the loss progression. A glance at the statistics shows that 74 of 306 Bundesliga matches ended in a draw in the 2016/2017 season - this is 24,18%. This also corresponds with the league spanning average number. Longterm statistics show that about every fourth match ends in a draw. So betting on draws is pretty tempting and the numbers prove, why so many combination bets that don't include a Tip X fail. Another advantage of this draw strategy: You don't need any sport knowledge. So the draw system is easy and promising. What's the catch then? It's simple: Even if in theory every fourth match ends in a draw, the factor luck plays no unimportant role in this betting strategy. Additionally it's a question of budget, whether you can and want to afford tipping on draws. The risk naturally is in a total loss - what will the next draw give you, when your betting budget is already drained? A realistic calculation and a longterm money management should be the foundation, before you dive into this betting strategy. Very important: Keep the base stake low at first and don't raise your stakes by 100 percent in the case of a loss, since this just not necessary.
What are alternative strategies to bets on draw?
Our experiences show that it doesn't make much sense to bet on draws a whole match day in a certain league. Let's say you bet Tip X for all matches of a match day of the English Premier League: This would mean 20 betting tips with stakes of 5 Euros each, which makes total stakes of 100 Euros. Now we say that according to the statistic average numbers every fourth match ends in a draw: This would be a success rate of 5 matches. With average odds of 3.50 this would make a profit of 87,50 Euros, so in total you have a loss of 12,50 Euros. With a sixth draw you would be in the plus - but barely: Your net profit would be 5 Euros. Always keep in mind that you already need a good portion of luck even for this small sum. This draw bet strategy might be successful for certain individual match days - but in the long run it's not promising and you will generate a minus after a certain time for sure. Therefore we want to present three draw betting strategies that are way more profitable.
Betting on handicap draws
This strategic consideration is a good alternative for everybody with an aversion to draw bets. After all you actually bet on a win for a certain team with a "handicap X bet". As an example for the lucrative betting odds we take the match between Arsenal and Everton. Let's say you count with a Gunners home win. Instead of the usual 3-way bet on Tip 1, you could place a handicap draw bet (0:1 or 0:2). The slightly higher risk is being rewarded with very high odds.
Usual 3-way bet
Tip 1 1,30 | Tip X 5,50 | Tip 2 10,00
Tip 1 1,80 | Tip X 3,40 | Tip 2 3,50
Tip 1 3,10 | Tip X 3,60 | Tip 2 1,75
Betting on draw in 1st half
Traditionally fewer goals are being scored in the first half than in the second one. Therefore half time results are way more often a draw than end results. Especially favourites that start into a match slowly are often satisfied with a 0:0 or 1:1 half time result. Odds of 3.00 or higher are not rare for matches with a clear favourite. When you can find steady odds of 2.00 or higher for your team at a bookmaker, you can use the progressive draw bet strategy here too. Due to the lower odds you need to count with doubling your stakes though, so that you can make up for losses and make profit in the long run. Let's stick with our example FC Arsenal versus FC Everton in order to make the differences between the odds compared to a usual 3-way-bet clear:
Who wins the first half?
Tip 1 1,70 | Tip X 2,55 | Tip 2 8,50
Bets on draw in system bets
Due to the betting principle this betting from is very well suited for betting on individual or a couple of draws. By taking one individual draw tip into the system bet of your choice the total odds and as a consequence the maximum profits are rising quickly. If the draw doesn't become reality it's not as bad in a system bet. There is still the chance to make a profit in the end. Many sports betting fans accept smaller losses with the possible high profit sums in sight. In order for you to lose your total stakes, the draw bet is wrong and all other tips would need to be wrong too. The risk of the draw bet is therefore deactivated. Some sports betting fans dare to make some experiments and play for example a system bet 4 out of 8 that solely consists of draw tips. Such tips can be successful from time to time and then they are extremely profitable - from experience we recommend to stay away from these tips though. Said system would consist of 70 betting lines after all and the total stakes would be jacked up.